Early Oscars Outlook: 2019 and Beyond

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Glenn Close went home empty handed for the seventh time. Seventh! I know longevity doesn’t always get rewarded and you need a little luck to win, but I’m looking at her IMDb and freaking out a little because she doesn’t have anything lined up for 2019… or 2020… or 2021… Did we miss our chance? I loved Olivia Colman’s performance in The Favourite and it was a worthy win, and I know the Academy has a regrettable history of make-up wins, but I’m truly torn about this.

Close isn’t alone. There are plenty of actors and actresses who have yet to win, including Amy Adams, Willem Dafoe and Viggo Mortensen this year, though I’m sure they’ll get other chances. Here’s a list of actors with upcoming films that could net their first win.


2019


Annette Bening

Previous Nominations: 4 (The Grifters, American Beauty, Being Julia, The Kids Are All Right)

Interesting Tidbit: Bening has lost to Hilary Swank twice, in 2000 (Boys Don’t Cry) and 2005 (Million Dollar Baby)

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Georgetown

Bening is the lead or co-lead in Christoph Waltz’s directorial debut, based on the play by David Auburn which was inspired by the real-life story of Viola Herms Drath, a wealthy German-American who was murdered at age 91 by her second husband. Knowing Waltz, I expect this to be quirky with some elements of drama, comedy, horror and thriller with several barbs at social issues, including the distribution of wealth and class conflict.

Odds of Oscar buzz: Promising


Ed Harris

Previous Nominations: 4 (Apollo 13, The Truman Show, Pollock, The Hours)

Should’ve Won For: Pollock

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: The Last Full Measure

Not to be confused with Jeff and Michael Shaara’s books on the American Civil War that spawned Gods and Generals, The Last Full Measure is indeed a film about war, but the one in Vietnam. I’m not sure how big Harris’ role is, but with such a big ensemble cast it’ll be difficult to really stand out. However, epic war dramas do tend to attract the Academy’s attention. The film is about William Pitsenbarger, who was awarded the Medal of Honor posthumously in 2000 for his bravery in saving a group of American soldiers in 1966.

Odds of Oscar buzz: Not high, especially in a crowded space in a genre with a very high bar

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Resistance

I don’t expect the role to be big, but it could be significant even with little screen time. Harris, one again in a war film, plays George S. Patton in a story about the French Resistance and their efforts to save orphans during World War II. Jesse Eisenberg is the lead, and I suspect it’ll mostly be a vehicle for him. It’s a prestige war-time drama which will be released smack-dab in the middle of awards season.

Odds of Oscar buzz: A glimmer

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Top Gun: Maverick

Nope. The original is great, but let’s move on.


Hugh Jackman

Previous Nominations: 1 (Les Misérables)

Should’ve been considered for: Best Actor in Prisoners, The Wolverine and The Front Runner

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Bad Education

Jackman and Allison Janney are tackling real-life subjects again. Jackman plays Frank Tassone, a corrupt school official in Roslyn, New York who embezzled over $10 million and was sentenced to prison in 2006. Jackman was good in The Front Runner but the film was a snooze. Director Cory Finley, who broke out with Thoroughbreds, should bring elements of comedy and drama.

Odds of Oscar buzz: Possible!


Edward Norton

Previous Nominations: 3 (Primal Fear, American History X, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

Should’ve won for: His terrifying turn as Neo-Nazi Derek Vinyard in American History X

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Motherless Brooklyn

Pulling double duty as both director and lead actor, this is Norton’s second film since 2000’s Keeping the Faith (it’s watchable despite the awful premise). It’s based on a novel by Jonathan Lethem, set in 1950s New York about a private eye with Tourette’s. Whenever Norton has to incorporate physicality into his performance, as he did in American History X and Primal Fear, the results have been very good.  

Odds of Oscar buzz: Noteworthy


Joaquin Phoenix

Previous Nominations: 3 (Gladiator, Walk the Line, The Master)

Should’ve won for: The Master, for creating such a layered character from scratch

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Joker

God knows how this will turn out. Directed by the same guy who gave us two of the most unnecessary sequels of mankind (The Hangover Part II and III), Phoenix has free reign to go truly bizarre in this sort-of Batman film. Both Jack Nicholson and Heath Ledger were brilliant, so Phoenix has big shoes to fill. If he manages to pull it off, the rewards could be huge.

Odds of Oscar buzz: High, if not controversial


Brad Pitt

Previous Nominations: 3 (12 Monkeys, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Moneyball)

Should’ve won for: Moneyball, but really it should’ve went to Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Pitt will play the main supporting role to Leonardo DiCaprio in Quentin Tarantino’s much-anticipated film about the Sharon Tate murder. Sony Pictures picked up distribution rights after Tarantino broke things off with The Weinstein Company, but with one important caveat: Tarantino gets final cut privilege. This is Tarantino’s first big film to be released in the summer blockbuster months, so it’ll be interesting to see if any buzz it generates has enough legs to stretch into December.

Odds of Oscar buzz: Very high


Sneak Peak for 2020


Johnny Depp

Previous Nominations: 3 (Pirates of the Caribbean, Finding Neverland, Sweeney Todd)

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Waiting for the Barbarians

Based on the best-selling novel by J.M. Coetzee, Depp is presumably either the lead or co-lead in the film.


Jake Gyllenhaal

Previous Nominations: 1 (Brokeback Mountain)

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Finest Kind

A modern-day crime drama from the director of Legend with Tom Hardy playing the infamous Kray twins.


Laura Linney

Previous Nominations: 3 (You Can Count On Me, Kinsey, The Savages)

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Molly

She’s wonderful, but will likely have a supporting role in a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem and Elle Fanning.


Michelle Williams

Previous Nominations: 4 (Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine, My Week With Marilyn, Manchester by the Sea)

Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Janis

From the director of the excellent Martha Marcy May Marlene, a biopic of iconic rocker Janis Joplin