My Predictions for the 2021 Oscars

It’s an Oscar season unlike any other. With an eligibility period and a ceremony delayed by two months due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it may be a long time before we see an Oscars year as uncertain as this. Major movies that may have figured into the race have been delayed, leaving a slate of nominees that would have been drowned out in other years. On top of that, the efforts that the Academy made in previous years to diversify their membership and (theoretically) result in more equitable winners seems to be having an effect: this year’s nominees were notable in the numbers of women and people of colour represented.

For prediction posts like these, that spells a bit of trouble, but maybe it’s the good kind. Whereas it used to be easy enough to guess where the old, white dudes would cast their votes, now we prognosticators need to rely on a bit more intuition. Time will tell if this is merely a quirk of the pandemic, or ends up being a trend for Oscar races to come, once the “bigger” movies that the studios have held onto come roaring back.

With that, on to the predictions! As always, I’ll be offering my pick based on what I’ve seen in industry reports, followed by my personal choice if I were voting, and a dark horse candidate.

Best Picture

What Will Win: Nomadland (OUR REVIEW)

A consensus has emerged that Nomadland is the best one of the year, and it’s hard to disagree. Not only is Chloé Zhao’s film deeply moving, beautifully shot and expertly performed, it seems like the perfect film for a pandemic year. Nomadland depicts lonely souls whose economic circumstances have compelled them to become modern-day nomads, though many of them find solace in their non-traditional lifestyles. If the pandemic has made you wonder about the fragility of our social fabric, Zhao’s film may be the comfort you need.

I really liked the film, though my personal favourite was Sound of Metal. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is my dark horse, since it’s the closest thing to a sweeping, awards-bait film on the list.

What I Want to Win: Sound of Metal (OUR REVIEW)

Dark Horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director

Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

The winners of Picture and Director are often in lockstep, and in the case of Nomadland, that appears to be the case again. Given the movie has an almost documentary vibe to it, Zhao’s hand is even more perceptible, as opposed to a big action-setpiece type affair. Zhao also won the Director’s Guild of America award in this category, further solidifying her chances.

The dark horse in this race is Chung, whose film Minari is running a close second to Nomadland in other contests. It’s possible that if the Academy is trying to spread some love around, they may give the trophy to Chung, but the precursor awards tell a different story.

Who I Want to Win: Chloé Zhao

Dark Horse: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Other than Supporting Actor, Lead Actress may be the toughest category to call this year. Both Davis and McDormand are both relatively recent winners, which historically affects chances. Meanwhile, Kirby and Day are first-time nominees, and there hasn’t been a lot of praise for Kirby’s Pieces of a Woman or Day’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday, beyond Kirby and Day’s respective performances.

Ultimately, I think McDormand will come out on top - Nomadland rests wholly on her performance, whereas Davis’ role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (despite the connection to the title) should arguably be in the Supporting category. I’d like to see Mulligan get the award myself, but that has more to do with her career to this point, and not necessarily her work in Promising Young Woman.

Who I Want to Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (OUR REVIEW)

Dark Horse: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Boseman, who passed away last year, seems to have a posthumous trophy secured. His work in Ma Rainey, where you can see him giving a career-highlight performance while simultaneously dealing with cancer, is unquestionably award-worthy. Awards favourites like Anthony Hopkins and Gary Oldman may be on the list here, but their past wins bump their chances down, while Boseman has picked up many of the precursor awards.

My personal favourite performance in the category is Ahmed, who drives Sound of Metal’s story of hearing loss, packing so much technique and layered emotions into his performance. I’ll be sad to see him lose out here, but I’m glad that the film is well-represented by nominations.

Who I Want to Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Riz Ahmed

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Minari may not pick up a lot at the Oscars, unfortunately due to the predominantly Korean dialogue. Bong Joon-ho’s challenge at last year’s Golden Globes ceremony about subtitles may not be enough to net Lee Isaac Chung’s film a lot of trophies, but no one can deny that Youn’s performance is central to Minari’s success. Her character’s relationship with the film’s young lead, David (Alan S. Kim), shapes the story and provides a lot of the comic relief, narrowing the race to Youn and Bakalova.

Nevertheless, it would be fun to see Bakalova take the prize, if only because the Borat sequel simply wouldn’t have worked without her or her character’s arc, and because comedy films are so woefully under-recognized at the Oscars. 

Who I Want to Win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan 

Dark Horse: Olivia Colman, The Father

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

One of the bigger topics of discussion when the nominations were announced last month was the double appearance of Judas and the Black Messiah cast members: Kaluuya and Stanfield. Due to a confluence of weird eligibility rules (helpfully explained here by Emily VanDerWerff), two performances which could also be considered for the Leading Role category ended up here. However, it appears Kaluuya is prevailing in this contest, picking up the SAG and the BAFTA awards.

In case you haven’t noticed, on a personal level I’m gunning for a Sound of Metal cast member again here. Paul Raci’s work as the counsellor of a program for former addicts with hearing loss was devastating, especially a crucial scene part-way through with Ahmed.

Who I Want to Win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Dark Horse: Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who Will Win: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

The Writers Guild award this year went to Fennell, making her the easy frontrunner. As usual, the writing categories often function as consolation prizes for those who lose out for Picture and Director. They also have a way of favouring up-and-coming filmmakers, or movies that may be a bit too “edgy” for the top prize. The screenplay for Promising Young Woman hits all those notes, and I’d be very curious to see how Fennell might play the Oscar success into bigger budgets and more ambitious projects.

That being said, if PYW takes the category, it means Minari gets skipped over. For me, Chung’s semi-autobiographical screenplay is the more emotionally affecting of the two, so we’ll see what the voters prefer: reminiscences of growing up in America, or a mordant satire about rape culture.

Who I Want to Win: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Dark Horse: Lee Isaac Chung

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen et al., Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan 

I’m putting Nomadland and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm almost neck-and-neck here. Nomadland is definitely the more traditional pick here, in that it may ride the wave of popularity that will likely win it the top prize and add the screenplay award to its pile. That being said, the Borat sequel lives and dies by its screenplay, as Baron Cohen and his team had to sift through countless hours of footage and gags from Baron Cohen’s latest adventures in character to craft a sequel that not only entertained, but exposed some terrifying behaviour during a pandemic and a U.S. election year.

Of the two, I liked Nomadland more, and part of me still believes that Zhao will take it home in the end. But I’m predicting that Baron Cohen and his team will win out, if only because it would make plenty of sense in a topsy-turvy year.

Who I Want to Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Dark Horse: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Pete Docter and Dana Murray, Soul

Never bet against Pixar. The studio dominates this category every year it’s eligible, and due to the weirdness of COVID-19, it actually has two movies nominated this time around, with Soul and Onward. Of the two, I’m calling it for Soul; released on Disney+ in December, it racked up plenty of praise (and some worthy critiques) from reviewers and was probably one of the most-viewed in this category.

However, Pixar is such a behemoth that it often shoulders out movies using more old-fashioned techniques, and Cartoon Saloon, the Irish studio behind Wolfwalkers, has routinely lost out to Pixar in previous match-ups, despite making beautiful 2D-animated releases like Song of the Sea. We just need Pixar to take a break the next time Cartoon Saloon is eligible - let the little guys grab some glory!

Who I Want to Win: Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants, Wolfwalkers

Dark Horse: Wolfwalkers

Best International Feature

What Will Win: Another Round, Denmark (OUR REVIEW)

This year doesn’t have a head-and-shoulders frontrunner like last year’s Parasite. I’ve seen roughly equal amounts of praise for Collective, from Romania, and for Quo Vadis, Aida?, from Bosnia and Herzegovina. But I think Another Round may have a slight edge over both. It’s another team-up between director Thomas Vinterberg and star Mads Mikkelsen, and the fact that Vinterberg also got a nomination in the Director category suggests that there’s some extra familiarity with the film beyond this category.  

What I Want to Win: Another Round

Dark Horse: Quo Vadis, Aida?, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Best Documentary Feature

What Will Win: Crip Camp

This category appears to be a three-way tie between Crip Camp, Time, and My Octopus Teacher. Other awards prognosticators are similarly split, so this may come down to which film the most people in the voting block saw. As a result, I’m guessing Crip Camp may have the advantage; it came out the earliest and on Netflix, and has the backing of Barack and Michelle Obama via their production company, Higher Ground.

That being said, Time is perhaps the one that deserves the trophy the most, given how it hinges on decades worth of footage recorded by its subject, Fox Rich, documenting her efforts to free her husband from prison.

What I Want to Win: Time

Dark Horse: My Octopus Teacher

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: Erik Messerschmidt, Mank (OUR REVIEW)

Despite being the movie with the most nominations this year (10 in all), Mank is very insider-Hollywood title, palatable mostly to classic film nerds. I highly doubt it will prevail outside the technical categories, so maybe we’ll be treated to more clips of David Fincher taking a drink as he loses in the other races. Mank’s cinematography, which seeks to recreate the style of 30s and 40s films, is precise to a fault. But the cinematographer, Erik Messerschmidt, picked up the guild award, so I’d say he has the Oscar in the bag unless Nomadland cruises to a win on the strength of its magic-hour photography.

Who I Want to Win: Erik Messerschmidt

Dark Horse: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland

Best Editing

Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

As the writer, director, and editor of Nomadland, Zhao is an undeniable triple threat. There are a lot of different editing styles on display this year, from in-your-face, stylish cutting like in Promising Young Woman, to subtler, yet still unconventional editing in The Father, to the naturalistic, flowing style in Nomadland. In terms of precursor awards, Baumgarten picked up the ACE Eddie, but I’m predicting Zhao will add to her trophy shelf here. 

Who I Want to Win: Yorgos Lamprinos, The Father

Dark Horse: Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7