Talking about the Oscar nominations recently on The Extra Buttery Podcast, I mentioned that this year’s iteration is a bit ho-hum. Compared to previous years with tight races and some surprising upsets on the big night, the 2020 show seems fated for a number of forgone-conclusion wins, and movies that are good-but-not-great snapping up the prizes.

Oscar cynics will point out that “you could say that about every year”, but somehow I felt a sharper twinge of disappointment this time; the movies I loved the most in 2019 are either underrepresented or otherwise shut out, like The Farewell, Uncut Gems, and Ad Astra. Instead, it’s looking like the technically brilliant, but narratively familiar, war movie 1917 and the “edgy” comic-book movie Joker are leading the charge in terms of nominations and likely success in the major categories.

There’s still a chance that the Film-Twitter ApprovedTM foreign-language nominee Parasite may act as a dark horse and make history in the Best Picture race, but I’m not putting a huge amount of faith in an Academy that only last year gave the award to Green Book, a (not terrible!) but thoroughly plain choice in a far more accomplished field. With less than one week to go, on to the picks!

BEST PICTURE

What Will Win: 1917 (OUR REVIEW)

With both the big prizes from the Producer’s Guild and the Director’s Guild in its (figurative) pockets, it’s looking like Sam Mendes’ film, set during the First World War, will take home the biggest trophy of the night. Netflix was a strong contender here, with both The Irishman and Marriage Story racking up praise, but for some reason the industry still LOVES war movies, and this one had the benefit of Roger Deakins behind the camera and an impressive filmmaking challenge of making the thing look like one unbroken take.

Normally I’m as stirred as most people by the genre, but I can’t quite understand how 1917 surged to the frontrunner position against this field. There’s a small chance that Parasite’s win for Best Ensemble at the SAG ceremony signals a possible win, but the all-Korean dialogue almost disqualifies it, unless this the year the Academy’s diversifying recruitment starts to have an effect.

What I Want to Win: Tie between Marriage Story and Parasite

Dark Horse: Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Who Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Even though Joker is leading in overall number of nominations, I don’t think that strengthens the case for Todd Phillips to leapfrog the likes of Scorsese or Tarantino in this category. Mendes picked up the DGA equivalent here, and the odds have it that he’ll nab the Oscar, too.

However, it would be an olive branch to the hard-core film fans if Bong Joon-ho at least repeated Alfonso Cuaròn’s pattern from last year. If you remember, the Mexican filmmaker came close to winning for Picture, but got the Director prize because Hollywood doesn’t like films in foreign languages all that much, apparently.

Who I Want to Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

BEST ACTOR

Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (OUR REVIEW)

Phoenix has cleaned up most of the awards this season, and there’s a school of thought that not only is it “his time”, after 4 lifetime nominations, but that his performance as the Joker is one of the most fascinating this year. Nevertheless, assuming he clinches the prize, it does reinforce some negative stereotypes about the self-effacement and physical torture actors need to undergo – not just for the infamous villain role, but for the award in general. On the bright side, Phoenix has been using the platform of his acceptance speeches this season to campaign for better behaviour in the industry.

Who I Want to Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Dark Horse: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

BEST ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy

This race is tougher than some of the others, partly due to how evenly matched the contenders are in terms of the quality of their roles, and partly due to prior attention by the Academy. Both Theron and Zellweger have already won in the past, and Ronan and Erivo are also past nominees. But Zellweger has the SAG and the portrayal of a Hollywood icon to her name, so that’s good enough for me.

That being said, I would like to Ronan finally lock down as Oscar after years of great work. Little Women gave her a perfect role, but apparently it was too much of an ensemble piece for her to stand out.

Who I Want to Win: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Dark Horse: Charlize Theron, Bombshell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (OUR REVIEW)

Another race locked in (barring a major upset) by the SAGs, Pitt will finally get an Oscar for acting this year, after picking up his first as a producer on 12 Years a Slave in 2014, amid seven total career nods. Pitt is sort of the ambassador for Tarantino’s 60s love letter – the movie might have cleaned up awards in a different year, but it appears that that Tinseltown isn’t quite as interested in itself as it’s been in the past.

Still, Pitt is inarguably one of the best parts of the whole movie, and plays perhaps the closest character to a superhero that Tarantino will write. Wouldn’t have pegged Tarantino for keeping with the times, but here we are!

Who I Want to Win: Brad Pitt

Dark Horse: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

There’s been little doubt since Marriage Story first appeared on the festival circuit: Laura Dern has this one by the throat. It’s a fitting image, considering how her take-no-prisoners divorce attorney in the movie strides into the film and delivers some of the best lines – including an incendiary feminist monologue that’s sure to be clipped for the telecast.

As for the other nominees, I’d like to see Pugh and Robbie win some day, of course, but their roles this year (to quote my co-writer Jason) aren’t meaty enough to grab attention. It’s interesting that Johansson appears both here and in Leading Actress, and I can’t help but wonder if her team considered whether it might hurt her chances, in the same way that Pesci and Pacino’s nods in the Supporting Actor race could split the Irishman votes.

Who I Want to Win: Laura Dern

Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Who Will Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (OUR REVIEW)

It’s the same story every year: the Writing categories function as the runner-up prize, usually going to the edgier films that deserved a spot in the Best Picture race but weren’t quite mainstream enough. This will be the fate of Parasite, if the results of the Writer’s Guild awards are any predictor. Bong’s script is Hitchcockian in tone but unlike anything we’ve seen before: it oscillates between dark humour and social critique, before swivelling into full-blown horror/thriller in the second half. And c’mon, if the line “Glory to the holy WiFi!” doesn’t convince you, what will?

Who I Want to Win: Tie between Parasite, Knives Out and Marriage Story

Dark Horse: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Who Will Win: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (OUR REVIEW)

It’s undeniable: Waititi and I are on the same wavelength, at least in terms of the sense of humour, so I can’t say I’m upset by the image of him winning an Oscar. His Second World War satire - which appears to tap in to present-day concerns over political radicalization without being too overt about it – made for a very good time at TIFF last year.

Still, I can’t help but be upset by the overall snubbing of Greta Gerwig’s Little Women in the 2020 contest. Maybe it’s that the source novel has had too many previous adaptations, or maybe Hollywood is still annoyed that Gerwig is clawing her way through the small hole in the glass ceiling, but the lukewarm industry response to one of the coziest movies of the year is very dispiriting.

Who I Want to Win: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Dark Horse: Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Who Will Win: Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera; Toy Story 4 

Like last year, the presence of a Pixar sequel in this lineup ought to tie a bow on the trophy, but the all-star studio is facing some tough competition this time: the visually fantastic How to Train Your Dragon sequel and the Netflix Christmas movie Klaus. The Dragon series has been nominated for each installment without a win, so that raises its chances slightly. Still, Toy Story is likely the contender that the most people have seen, and it does boast some gob-smacking technical achievements.

Who I Want to Win: Jérémy Clapin, Marc du Pontavice; I Lost My Body

Dark Horse: Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román, Klaus

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

What Will Win: Parasite

It would truly be the upset of the year if Parasite lost this category: it’s been on the top of so many best-of-2019 lists, and at a time when it’s still not that common to see a foreign language film with such broad support outside the film buff community. It would be a bigger upset still for it to nab Best Picture, but I think it will have to make do with at least the Original Screenplay and perhaps a few of the technical categories, too. 

What I Want to Win: Parasite

Dark Horse: Pain and Glory

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

What Will Win: American Factory

Very often, the winner of the documentary feature award goes to the one most people have seen, which is an unfortunate symptom of documentary film distribution. Netflix has done a lot for the genre, and it stands to reason that they’ve popped up here frequently in recent years. This time, their contender has two other things going for it: it’s the first release from the production company founded by Barack and Michelle Obama, and it focuses on a pressing issue in American culture: the takeover of American factories by foreign investors. 

What I Want to Win: American Factory

Dark Horse: Honeyland

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Who Will Win: Roger Deakins, 1917

The voters in this category love a good technical challenge, especially when it calls attention to itself. This was likely what secured three back-to-back awards for Emmanuel Lubezki between 2014-2016: whether it was groundbreaking VFX integration, hidden cuts in long takes, or shooting chronologically in only available light, cinematography is often a game of problem solving that stands in for many departments at once when the awards roll around. 

Deakins was once almost comically overlooked by the Academy, being nominated 14 times before finally winning for Blade Runner 2049. Now he’s set to bag his second trophy for 1917 - the one-take “illusion” in the movie is exactly the kind of thing this category is made for. However, he faces stiff competition from the likes of Lawrence Sher and Robert Richardson - what else were all the nominations for Joker than some indication of how popular it is across the industry?

Who I Want to Win: Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

Dark Horse: Lawrence Sher, Joker

BEST FILM EDITING

Who Will Win:Yang Jinmo, Parasite

Editing is a tough call in 2020, surprisingly. On an aesthetic level, it’s hard to separate movies like Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, and The Irishman. Parasite benefits from its precisely-formed sequences (analyzed beautifully in this video essay), whereas Ford v Ferrari forces you to grip the wheel of a Le Mans racecar. The Irishman is notable partly due to Thelma Schoonmaker’s legendary skill and name recognition, but also due to the huge length of the piece and choices that needed to be made to keep it in check.

But when times are tough, precursor awards are the way to go. Parasite won the American Cinema Editors’ “Eddie” award, so I’m favouring that. 

Who I Want to Win: Yang Jinmo

Dark Horse: Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford v Ferrari