Back in February, we surveyed all the films set to come out over the upcoming year and wondered who could win their first statue in 2020.

It’s now five months later, so we thought it was high time to revisit the list and see what’s changed.

Annette Bening (Georgetown)

Christoph Waltz’s directorial debut received a modest reception at Tribeca. It garnered little buzz and early reviews indicated a bewildering comedic take on the true-life murder of a 91-year-old socialite.

Oscar chances: Nil.

Ed Harris (The Last Full Measure; Resistance)

Harris plays the older version of a character in The Last Full Measure, and with a pretty big cast may not get enough screen time.

Oscar chances: Slim.

Resistance will mostly be Jesse Eisenberg’s vehicle; he plays Marcel Marceau, a mime turned French Resistance member during the French Revolution. Harris plays George S. Patton, for whom Marceau served as a liaison officer in the Third Army. It’s unclear how much of a role Patton played in Marceau’s personal life.

Oscar chances: Also slim.

Hugh Jackman (Bad Education)

Principal photography began in October 2018 and no release date has been set. Pushing for a fall release in 2019 would be a quick turnaround, so it’s likely that 2020 would be a far more comfortable release date. This effectively means Jackman will not be part of the Oscar race this year.

Oscar chances: N/A.

Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn)

Set to be released on November 1, Motherless Brooklyn has recently drawn buzz in the death of a NYC firefighter during filming. Norton has been trying to adapt Jonathan Lethem’s book for years. The actor drawing the most buzz from production has been Willem Dafoe, who has been nominated four times for an Oscar, most recently for At Eternity's Gate, but has never won.  

Norton's Oscar chances: Unknown.

Dafoe’s Oscar chances: Optimistic.

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Phoenix looked incredible in the trailer, and the Method actor went through some incredible body transformations to play the tortured Batman villain. Early buzz is that the film will be particularly brutal, with Phoenix’s character getting beat up and hitting rock bottom before ultimately rising again as a serial killer. The quality of the film is TBD, but Phoenix is clearly its biggest selling point so far.

Oscar chances: Let’s put a smile on that face!

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood; Ad Astra)

The buzz coming out of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is that it’s not Quentin Tarantino’s best work, and how it deals with Sharon Tate’s murder will certainly affect its reception by audiences. Based on early looks in the trailers, Pitt mostly plays quiet sidekick to emotional roller coaster Leonardo DiCaprio.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Oscar chances: Downgraded.

Ad Astra, meanwhile, was pushed back (twice) to a September 2019 release date after previously planned for January and then Memorial Day weekend (May 25). It’s always a little worrying when a film gets a second date in January (typically when films go to die); but a push back to the fall months when Oscar-bait films are in full swing is an interesting move. Produced by 20th Century Fox, part of the reason for its delay is because Disney didn’t close their deal for Fox until March. Since then, Disney has been reluctant (or unwilling) to promote the film (over Aladdin, obviously). Halfway through the year, not one film has really stood out as an Oscar contender. Black Panther, Annihilation, A Quiet Place and First Reformed were all released before June last year.

The truth is that Pitt has always excelled more playing quirky characters than dramatic ones and he’s already eight years removed from Moneyball and Tree of Life. That’s like an eternity is social-media world. Ad Astra is an ambitious sci-fi film that tracks closely with Gravity, and with all due respect to director James Gray (The Lost City of Z, sorely underrated) and veteran Fringe writer Ethan Gross, they’re not Alfonso Cuarón. Gravity’s budget is twice Ad Astra’s, and given the lack of buzz from the trailer, promos and the production run itself, we might be looking at a passable sci-fi thriller that neither bombs nor excites... think Passengers, but probably better. 

Ad Astra Oscar chances: Some, but dwindling quickly.