It’s by the far one of the messiest years in recent memory when it comes to calling the Oscars. In the absence of sure-fire picks in many categories, and disruptive winners in some of the precursor guild awards, many races in 2019 come down as much to gut instinct as they do to statistics.

It’s a big year for foreign-language and foreign-produced films, with Netflix’s Mexico City-set Roma and the 18th century black comedy The Favourite stacking up loads of nominations, and hard-to-find films like Poland’s Cold War and Germany’s Never Look Away appearing in the directing and cinematography categories.

Meanwhile, the acting races are also a bit opaque. More so than in previous years, there are a handful of middling movies (*ahem* Vice) with great performances jostling for top spot, and factors outside the films themselves will have as big an impact on the winner as the work being recognized.

One development is likely, however: this will be a big year for Netflix, and not so big for superheroes, as represented by Black Panther. Netflix is primed to win its first-ever Oscars as a studio for its involvement in Roma, whereas the buzz around the cultural achievements of Black Panther won’t be enough to overcome the Academy’s habit of sniffing at genre movies. Whether Netflix can continue on this trend is another matter, but maybe they’ll change their logo to gold to celebrate.

Best Picture

What Will Win: Roma

Alfonso Cuarón’s sprawling film - set in his hometown in the 1970s and charting a year in a life of a family maid, inspired by the woman who raised him - has dominated much of the awards conversation for a while. There were brief pushes behind Green Book and even A Star is Born, but both seem to have collapsed as more of the guild awards were announced.

Some superhero fans are still holding out hope for Black Panther, but when considered as a film and not a cultural landmark (which it undoubtedly deserves to be), Ryan Coogler’s film can’t keep up. Personally, I found Roma deeply affecting, despite not sharing Cuarón’s background, and that’s ultimately what the power of movies is all about.

What I Want to Win: Roma

Dark Horse: Green Book

Best Director

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Here’s where the guild awards don’t fail us: Cuarón walked away from the Directors’ Guild Awards with the top prize, all but guaranteeing him another win following his first success in the category for 2013’s Gravity.

There’s some discussion over whether Cuarón may be upset by Spike Lee, especially since Lee has never won a trophy during his prolific career, and oddly has never even been nominated in this category before. And although I wouldn’t be sad to see Lee take it, my personal fave in the bunch is Yorgos Lanthimos, who has been making weird, hard-to-classify stuff for a while and deserves the kind of push behind his future projects that only an Oscar can bring.

Who I Want to Win: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Dark Horse: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Few people saw Close coming in this category, unless you keep a close eye on the lists of actors with record numbers of nominations but no wins. That might be because the film that contains her great performance isn’t anything super special itself: a timely but otherwise unremarkable story about a woman who’s been in the shadow of her famous husband for too long.

To say that Close is the frontrunner only because of her previous work would diminish all her noteworthy efforts in The Wife, but I definitely shared everyone’s surprise (and evidently, Close’s as well) when she picked up the Golden Globe. Especially when Olivia Colman is in the running, for a superior overall film, The Favourite.

Who I Want to Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

This category has to be one of the toughest to call in 2019, other than Best Supporting Actress. Most who have seen Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody agree that he’s the lone bright spot in an otherwise by-the-book and boring musical biopic. Meanwhile, Christian Bale, Malek’s closest competition, also fronts a ho-hum biopic and also approaches his role from the school of disappearing into the character with the help of prosthetics and physical transformation.

Oddly, this contest is subject to some outside forces: increased whispers about the sexual assault allegations against Rhapsody’s director Bryan Singer won’t make some Academy members feel good about voting for the film, and Hollywood’s traditional Democrat leanings, especially during a politically charged time, may put Bale’s performance as Dick Cheney over the top. However, considering that Malek already picked up the SAG Award, it’s his race to lose.

Who I Want to Win: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Dark Horse: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

In another example of the guild awards being strangely unhelpful, this year’s SAG Award for Best Supporting Actress went to Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place. Since Blunt isn’t nominated at all for the equivalent Oscar, predicting the winner gets a lot harder. Making things more complicated are nods for two previous winners (performing in the same movie) and the presence of Amy Adams, who I’d normally root for if she wasn’t here for a tiny role in a mediocre film.

So buzz now shifts over to Regina King, who picked up the Golden Globe for her role in Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk. King isn’t a huge presence in the film, and the Globe isn’t normally much of an indicator - to say nothing of the fact that King wasn’t even nominated in the SAG race. But in an uncertain year, perhaps King will sweep through and give Beale Street a consolation prize of sorts.

Who I Want to Win: Emma Stone, The Favourite

Dark Horse: Amy Adams, Vice

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Past contests indicate that repeat wins close together are hard to come by - the Academy seems to want to spread its recognition out across a career if it can. As a result, I’d normally discount Mahershala Ali’s chances, no matter how much craft he displays in his portrayal of composer Don Shirley in Green Book. But Ali’s SAG win suggests otherwise, taking the wind out of the sails of the other frontrunner, Sam Elliott. Whether you liked A Star is Born or not, Elliott brought professionalism and pathos to his role, and some say he’s due for a win.

Who I Want to Win: Sam Elliott , A Star is Born

Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who Will Win: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Even though the true barometer of screenplay award success (the WGA Awards) won’t be announced until February 17, it looks like Green Book will turn its one-time Best Picture candidacy into a make-up win for its screenplay. Whether or not you feel that it compartmentalizes and prettifies race relations, it’s clear that the movie became a crowd-pleaser at festivals, and connected with people on an emotional level.

That being said, I’d be very happy to see Paul Schrader swoop in and grab the award for First Reformed. In many ways, First Reformed belongs in the race for Picture, and it’s a far more effective political statement than the film that likely took its place, Vice.

Who I Want to Win: Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Dark Horse: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who Will Win: Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee’s new film may not be able to go all the way in the Picture or Director races, but it may eke out a win for its writing. In some respects, this is the classic screenplay-category-as-consolation-prize effect at work, but the writing in BlacKkKlansman is arguably the best in this race, anyway. It strikes a tricky balance between super-serious race-based drama and elements of dark humour, and converts an allegedly dry memoir into a engaging movie.  

Who I Want to Win: BlacKkKlansman

Dark Horse: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

There was a time where the awards pundits doubted that a vibrant, stylized film like Spider-Verse could overcome a field crowded with Pixar-style animation competitors. But with Disney running two sequels this year (one from Pixar, and one from their other animation studio) and overwhelming praise for Spider-Verse from critics and moviegoers, there may be some fairness at the Oscars after all. Plus, if a superhero movie is going to pick up an Oscar, it should be for the actual best one from 2018, i.e. not Black Panther.

Who I Want to Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Dark Horse: Incredibles 2

Best Documentary

What Will Win: Free Solo

Ah yes, we come to one of the categories that we all forget to see. And I’m no different: as of this writing, I haven’t caught any of these releases. Word is that Free Solo is the strongest contender, as the filmmaking techniques used to capture its subject’s stunning untethered ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite compel you to see this on a big screen. However, RBG is apparently neck-and-neck in terms of Academy support.

What I Want to Win: Free Solo (???)

Dark Horse: RBG

Best Foreign Language Film

What Will Win: Roma

For once, I feel pretty good about my progress through this category. Having seen three of the five nominees so far, I don’t have the usual sense of guilt about keeping on top of my world cinema viewing. That being said, in terms of what’s likely to win, the answer is pretty obvious: even if Roma loses Best Picture, it will snap up the foreign language category, partly due to how easy Netflix made it to see this film before the nominations were decided. When you’re blasting out a release to a huge subscriber base, it’s far easier to overcome the typical challenge of getting voters to actually watch and consider your subtitled, black-and-white masterpiece.

There’s still a chance that voters may prefer Roma to take the big prize and then hand this category to another film for the sake of spreading the love; Cold War and the Palme d’Or winner Shoplifters are in play in this scenario.

What I Want to Win: Roma

Dark Horse: Shoplifters

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Roma is by no means a contender to sweep the Oscars, at least not when you think about giant wins of yesteryear like those of Titanic and Return of the King. But if it pulls off Best Picture, it’s likely going to take Cinematography as well. Cuarón is a very technique-focused filmmaker, and his past success with Gravity was partially based on the framing and lighting he employed to make us feel utterly lost in space. The same skills are on display again in Roma, and unless Robbie Ryan pulls off an upset for his use of wonky angles and natural light in The Favourite, Cuarón is going to need a bigger trophy shelf.

Who I Want to Win: Robbie Ryan, The Favourite

Dark Horse: Matthew Libatique, A Star is Born

Best Film Editing

Who Will Win: Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman

I love the repartee and odd rhythms of The Favourite, and that closing cross dissolve between Emma Stone, Olivia Colman, and the rabbits is truly epic. But like with its screenplay, BlacKkKlansman is more effective at building tension and in knowing when to layer in some humour to cut through the revulsion you feel about its villains. And if we all agree that achievement in editing is about the choices of what to include and not include, then we have to mention the choice by Spike Lee and Barry Alexander Brown at the end of the film. They jump from the events of the film’s main story to footage of the deadly 2017 riots in Charlottesville, Virginia - a chilling and poignant inclusion.

Who I Want to Win: Yorgos Mavropsaridis, The Favourite

Dark Horse: The Favourite