Early Oscars Outlook: 2019 and Beyond
Glenn Close went home empty handed for the seventh time. Seventh! I know longevity doesn’t always get rewarded and you need a little luck to win, but I’m looking at her IMDb and freaking out a little because she doesn’t have anything lined up for 2019… or 2020… or 2021… Did we miss our chance? I loved Olivia Colman’s performance in The Favourite and it was a worthy win, and I know the Academy has a regrettable history of make-up wins, but I’m truly torn about this.
Close isn’t alone. There are plenty of actors and actresses who have yet to win, including Amy Adams, Willem Dafoe and Viggo Mortensen this year, though I’m sure they’ll get other chances. Here’s a list of actors with upcoming films that could net their first win.
2019
Annette Bening
Previous Nominations: 4 (The Grifters, American Beauty, Being Julia, The Kids Are All Right)
Interesting Tidbit: Bening has lost to Hilary Swank twice, in 2000 (Boys Don’t Cry) and 2005 (Million Dollar Baby)
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Georgetown
Bening is the lead or co-lead in Christoph Waltz’s directorial debut, based on the play by David Auburn which was inspired by the real-life story of Viola Herms Drath, a wealthy German-American who was murdered at age 91 by her second husband. Knowing Waltz, I expect this to be quirky with some elements of drama, comedy, horror and thriller with several barbs at social issues, including the distribution of wealth and class conflict.
Odds of Oscar buzz: Promising
Ed Harris
Previous Nominations: 4 (Apollo 13, The Truman Show, Pollock, The Hours)
Should’ve Won For: Pollock
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: The Last Full Measure
Not to be confused with Jeff and Michael Shaara’s books on the American Civil War that spawned Gods and Generals, The Last Full Measure is indeed a film about war, but the one in Vietnam. I’m not sure how big Harris’ role is, but with such a big ensemble cast it’ll be difficult to really stand out. However, epic war dramas do tend to attract the Academy’s attention. The film is about William Pitsenbarger, who was awarded the Medal of Honor posthumously in 2000 for his bravery in saving a group of American soldiers in 1966.
Odds of Oscar buzz: Not high, especially in a crowded space in a genre with a very high bar
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Resistance
I don’t expect the role to be big, but it could be significant even with little screen time. Harris, one again in a war film, plays George S. Patton in a story about the French Resistance and their efforts to save orphans during World War II. Jesse Eisenberg is the lead, and I suspect it’ll mostly be a vehicle for him. It’s a prestige war-time drama which will be released smack-dab in the middle of awards season.
Odds of Oscar buzz: A glimmer
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Top Gun: Maverick
Nope. The original is great, but let’s move on.
Hugh Jackman
Previous Nominations: 1 (Les Misérables)
Should’ve been considered for: Best Actor in Prisoners, The Wolverine and The Front Runner
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Bad Education
Jackman and Allison Janney are tackling real-life subjects again. Jackman plays Frank Tassone, a corrupt school official in Roslyn, New York who embezzled over $10 million and was sentenced to prison in 2006. Jackman was good in The Front Runner but the film was a snooze. Director Cory Finley, who broke out with Thoroughbreds, should bring elements of comedy and drama.
Odds of Oscar buzz: Possible!
Edward Norton
Previous Nominations: 3 (Primal Fear, American History X, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Should’ve won for: His terrifying turn as Neo-Nazi Derek Vinyard in American History X
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Motherless Brooklyn
Pulling double duty as both director and lead actor, this is Norton’s second film since 2000’s Keeping the Faith (it’s watchable despite the awful premise). It’s based on a novel by Jonathan Lethem, set in 1950s New York about a private eye with Tourette’s. Whenever Norton has to incorporate physicality into his performance, as he did in American History X and Primal Fear, the results have been very good.
Odds of Oscar buzz: Noteworthy
Joaquin Phoenix
Previous Nominations: 3 (Gladiator, Walk the Line, The Master)
Should’ve won for: The Master, for creating such a layered character from scratch
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Joker
God knows how this will turn out. Directed by the same guy who gave us two of the most unnecessary sequels of mankind (The Hangover Part II and III), Phoenix has free reign to go truly bizarre in this sort-of Batman film. Both Jack Nicholson and Heath Ledger were brilliant, so Phoenix has big shoes to fill. If he manages to pull it off, the rewards could be huge.
Odds of Oscar buzz: High, if not controversial
Brad Pitt
Previous Nominations: 3 (12 Monkeys, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Moneyball)
Should’ve won for: Moneyball, but really it should’ve went to Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pitt will play the main supporting role to Leonardo DiCaprio in Quentin Tarantino’s much-anticipated film about the Sharon Tate murder. Sony Pictures picked up distribution rights after Tarantino broke things off with The Weinstein Company, but with one important caveat: Tarantino gets final cut privilege. This is Tarantino’s first big film to be released in the summer blockbuster months, so it’ll be interesting to see if any buzz it generates has enough legs to stretch into December.
Odds of Oscar buzz: Very high
Sneak Peak for 2020
Johnny Depp
Previous Nominations: 3 (Pirates of the Caribbean, Finding Neverland, Sweeney Todd)
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Waiting for the Barbarians
Based on the best-selling novel by J.M. Coetzee, Depp is presumably either the lead or co-lead in the film.
Jake Gyllenhaal
Previous Nominations: 1 (Brokeback Mountain)
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Finest Kind
A modern-day crime drama from the director of Legend with Tom Hardy playing the infamous Kray twins.
Laura Linney
Previous Nominations: 3 (You Can Count On Me, Kinsey, The Savages)
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Molly
She’s wonderful, but will likely have a supporting role in a father-daughter drama starring Javier Bardem and Elle Fanning.
Michelle Williams
Previous Nominations: 4 (Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine, My Week With Marilyn, Manchester by the Sea)
Upcoming Oscar-Worthy Project: Janis
From the director of the excellent Martha Marcy May Marlene, a biopic of iconic rocker Janis Joplin